Post by maxington on Jun 5, 2019 17:51:28 GMT
For most of its existence in modern history, Kalistan's "strongman" attitude has defined its geopolitical stance within the Seleyan continent. It is through this strongman attitude Kalistan is the only nation on the seleyan continent capable of scrambling it from the inside out. This in itself is one of the many indirect weapons in Kalistan's arsenal for continued relevance in a region it can't keep up with. But this "strongman" attitude is all but a facade to shield a geopolitically vulnerable Kalistan.
Kalistan is in no relative danger of running out of natural gas or crude oil. Over the past decade, the Kalistani energy sector has received considerable government subsidies necessary in ensuring its continued relevance in Kalistani economic policy making. Whilst specifics on the nation's national reserves are unknown, it is thought to be roughly around to be around 55 billion barrels, placing the nation in the top 20 oil and natural gas producers in the world. Despite its size, many believe that the Kalistani energy sector will not be able to sustain competition from the rising clout of renewable energy, increased moves towards energy independence by nations such as Luthori and Dorvik and the potential for the activation of the Trigunian oil and natural gas sector. Commentators believe that Kalistan's state-owned Kalistani National Petroleum Company (KALNAPECO) may lack the necessary foreign direct investment necessary in allowing for it to be viewed as attractive for business externally. Whilst its dominance in the oil and natural gas markets in Kalistan is certain through national law, the instance when the company ventures outside the protection of government subsidies, its potential would be dwarfed by larger and more established corporations such as the Dorvish Natural Resources Technical Management Corporation (NTVS), the Luthorian Crown Petroleum Company (CPC) and the Trigunian Gosneft. Oil and Natural Gas production remains an extremely integral part of Kalistan's economy, having contributed around 40-50% of revenue generated through trade and business. It is because of its importance to Kalistan's relative stability, KALNAPECO often finds itself on the table where national planning is discussed. It's relative importance to (1) securing Kalistan's relevance in the world and (2) securing relative stability in the nation allows for its to be involved in key discussions of Kalistani interest. Not to downplay the key positioning of companies and organisations such as ODEN and KALNAFERCO, as these companies play key roles in economic stability and international market access, however these companies do not hold a business model by which an entire economy can be based on. ODEN's exportation/sharing of drugs and narcotics is not a stable platform for economics as the drugs markets aren't capable of reeling in investment at rate at which oil and natural gas exploitation, refining and exportation can. The same applies for KALNAFERCO's low-level industrial activity. Whereas in some nations, oil and natural gas are important vectors as an export than as a contributor to economic output, in Kalistan this not the case as mentioned prior. Because of price control, the state-owned oil and natural gas company; oil and natural gas accounts for a massive fraction of revenue. It is because of this Kalistan is vulnerable to external shock and its impact on the oil and natural gas industry. A drop in prices can dent Kalistan's revenue earning and has the potential to damage that nation's economy significantly.
The geographical hot spots of the world are all related to global trade and political exchange, and the Strait of Ananto is no exception. The history of the strait's geopolitical significance goes as back as the early years of colonialism, as it provided the shortest route for trading moving up the eastern corridor of the Seleyan continent and into the northern hemisphere. Long before the construction of the Aldegar Canal, the Strait of Ananto served as the fastest route for trans-seleyan trade. Traditionally, prior to its discovery trade would, in essence, move around the landmass of Ananto and along the New Endralonian coast, however its discovery soon shifted the direction of trade alongside the eastern portion of the continent. It is because of this geopolitical significance, the strait itself has been privy to foreign control for centuries. In 2017 alone, around two thousand containers in over thirty-thousand container ships crossed its waters carrying about 20% of eastern seleyan trade to the northern nations and the wider western hemisphere (this excluding the Aldegar Canal). In order to understand the geopolitical importance of the Strait of Ananto for the Kalistani Government we need to review the current geopolitical dynamics. The Western Great Powers use market access to guarantee global trade to guarantee global security and stability. Should Kalistan be able to intercept ships (might they be commercial or military) through the gulf, the entire structure of eastern seleyan trade and nautical movement would collapse. Any Kalistani action that inhibited the movement of vessels (regardless of their nature) automatically threatened north-western trade. Or at-least it used to. The western great power are abandoning their routes to the east as they begin to strengthen and unite their more profitable trade cores in the west alongside the discovery of more profitable energy prospects in Artania and Majatra. This is most seen with Luthori's push in the Three Mountains Agreement, the Artanian Union and the Organisation of Southern Artanian States. Instead of Kalistan being able to threaten trade (without it even having the intention of doing so), the western great powers no longer need the routes, no longer need the trade and no longer need energy from eastern seleya. Without mentioning the thousands of barrels of subsidised oil and natural gas passing between the straits (mainly of Kalistani origin), It is easy to see the strait's significance to the nation's political and economic security. The twin island republic of Kalistan is separated by the Strait of Ananto as it cuts right through the Kalistani mainland and the Island-state of Ananto. During the early years of colonialism foreign powers, as mentioned prior, maintained their control over the straits via a continued at-sea presence. To the republic this in itself was crippling the nation's holistic security as the presence of this foreign powers creates the impetus for a potential blockade of trans-island trade. It was a known sentiment that in order to squeeze Kalistan, a nation did not need to impose economic sanctions nor did it need to blockade its major ports. The key in crippling the Kalistani economy lies in the strait. Unlike other nations where their oil interests either through inland or through the ports, Kalistan's oil and natural gas flows between and through the Ananto Strait. The majority of Kalistan's energy exports originate from the straits, with its most important infrastructure (submarine cabals, natural gas pipeline) running through it between the mainland and Ananto. It is worth recognising the fact that whilst it would require a naval task force to keep the straits open, it will only take a single frigate or destroyer to close it; and perhaps four to make that "blockade" semi-permeable. Whilst Kalistan can argue that by blocking military traffic through the straits is a measure to mitigate the aforementioned vulnerability, it acts as a deterrent to trade between Kalistan and the nations of the eastern hemisphere. By removing a nation's ability to protect its commercial shipping through escorts, states will not take the risk of sending commercial shipping through a region which is becoming highly militarised and partially enforced by privateers. Thus trade (for those nations not willing to take the risk) will be diverted elsewhere either alongside the New Endralonian coast once more or through the Aldegar canal.
Ananto is culturally different from the rest of Kalistan. It has been the seat of power, and political opposition and has historically proxied resentment over Ananto treating the rest of Kalistan as colony. In the Republican period, Ananto was the main driver of national unity, but there are still pockets of simmering resentment about the Anantonese cultural hegemony. But Ananto has been by and large successful in homogenising Kalistani culture as Anantonese Culture writ large. And since the power is in Ananto, and they are on an island, that can easily be bombed hours before the mainland can even respond, their foreign policy is largely driven by a deep sense of insecurity, combined with a sense of cultural superiority, not only to the rest of Kalistan, but also to most of the rest of the world. However, with its cultural superiority complex aside, Ananto, has for most of its existence as the financial centre of Kalistan and the richest of the provinces of Kalistan, been given the bad end of the deal in maintaining a united Kalistan. When placed against Ananto, the other provinces are ageing towards near retirement, tax structures are changing to adjust to the fact that support for retirees in the future will be needed. A tax base in the high margins in order to fund the government, to fund social programmes. Apart from this, these provinces wish to preserve purchasing power as a means of supporting these aforementioned programmes since taxes alone cannot take care of an ageing population. From healthcare to welfare, the preservation of purchasing power would in effect, allow these provinces to accommodate for themselves. Ananto is as young and highly skilled and highly paid as the rest of Kalistan is old and poorly skilled and poorly paid. Ananto and Suldanor are the only provinces who have production rates above replacement. Because its young population, the situation evolves whereby Ananto pay for the majority of the other provinces. However Ananto is not alone in this injustice. Suldanor is the centre of Kalistan's industrial potential. The majority of Kalistan's industrial activities are based in Suldanor. From oil and natural gas exploitation to heavy industry practices involving metals and raw minerals. As with Ananto, so with Suldanor, it's young population often has to foot the national bill for development alongside Ananto. Both Ananto and Suldanor need low tax structures to support young families and growing industries. To this extent, Suldanor and Odufaray in particular, wish for a weaker currency as all of their output (their oil, gas and agriculture) are denominated. So as the Kalistani Government continues to push for a stronger currency, Suldanor and Odufaray are being imbalanced. In the future there is the possibility of secessionist movements springing up in these states especially Ananto and Suldanor. Whilst it is illegal to vouch for succession, these provinces have limited options as it pertains to escaping the injustice.
In recognising the aforementioned points, the Kalistani people and it's government have a lot of thinking to do. Will it settle for its current state and watch its oil and natural gas industry dwindle into irrelevance because of a lack of trade?; Will it settle for the current state of its agriculture sector and watch as its agricultural potential be tanked as soon as it is placed to compete externally?; Will the provinces maintain their current status and watch as their contribution to the national budget through taxation increase and hence create the impetus for inequality? Will these provinces sit back and watch as their potential to increase output and compete on a global scale dwindle as the government attempts to strengthen the national currency?